Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun

Quick read:

Backing the Connecticut Sun on the spread is a straightforward call given their rebounding advantage, which often translates into more second-chance opportunities and better control of the game's tempo. With a 3-rebound per game lead over Toronto, they can dictate possession enough to keep the game within striking distance.

While the Sun’s three-point shooting is modest at 26.8%, this shouldn't be a liability against a team that doesn’t dominate the glass like Toronto does. The Tempo’s average of 30.5 rebounds per game is solid, but likely insufficient to fully neutralize Connecticut’s board presence and keep the Sun from covering the small spread.

Of course, the price on +1.5 might be tempting enough to attract some sharp action, so don’t be shocked if it tightens up as tip-off nears. Still, the safer play lies with the Sun’s rebounding advantage and probable ability to keep this one tight.