Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun

Quick read:

We’re backing the total to exceed 173.5 points, banking on the sheer volume of possessions that both squads generate.

Phoenix pulls down about 31.5 rebounds per game and Connecticut tops that with 32.9, so expect plenty of second‑chance opportunities, while their three‑point rates—32.5% for the Mercury and 29.5% for the Sun—are enough to keep the scoreboard ticking.

The only wrinkle is the sub‑30% three‑point shooting; if the long ball dries up, the total could stall—though the boards should keep the lights on, even on a cold night.