Rayo Vallecano vs. Sevilla

Quick read:

I'm backing Sevilla on the moneyline because they bring a defensive grind that Rayo simply can't punch through – think a brick wall with a few sneaky side doors for counter‑attacks.

Rayo's home outings have turned into goal‑fests for the opposition, while Sevilla have been the kind of side that lets opponents have a few chances but rarely lets them find the net; that disparity makes the odds look like a bargain.

The only wrinkle is Sevilla's occasional lapse in concentration on the road, but at these odds the risk is a small price to pay for a team that knows how to win ugly and still collect the three points.