Prediction: Atlanta Dream VS New York Liberty 2025-07-13

WNBA Showdown: New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream
July 13, 2025 | 7:00 PM ET | Barclays Center

---

### Key Statistics & Trends
1. New York Liberty (13-7, 1st in East):
- Reigning champs seeking their first 2-game winning streak since their 9-0 start.
- Star power: Sabrina Ionescu (21.3 PPG, 7.8 APG), Breanna Stewart (18.9 PPG, 8.2 RPG), and Leonie Fiebich (12.4 PPG) form a lethal trio.
- Home dominance: 8-2 at home this season, including a 87-78 win over the Aces last game.

2. Atlanta Dream (12-8, 4th in East):
- Allisha Gray’s slump: The All-Star, averaging 18.7 PPG, was held to 6 points in their last loss to Indiana due to relentless defense and double-teams.
- Rebounding beast: 2nd in the league (37.3 RPG), but 8th in FG% (44.1) and 10th in 3PT% (32.9).
- Road woes: 6-5 on the road, but have beaten the Liberty 2-1 in the season series (including a 91-90 win in May).

---

### Injuries & Updates
- No major injuries reported for either team.
- Atlanta’s challenge: Coach Karl Smesko admitted their defense “stuck to Gray like glue” in their last loss. Can they adapt? Probably not—New York’s defense is 4th in the league in opponent FG% (41.9%).

---

### Odds Breakdown
Bookmakers:
- New York (-4.5, 1.53 decimal) | Atlanta (+4.5, 2.52 decimal)
- Total: 166.5 (even money).

Implied Probabilities:
- Liberty: 1 / 1.53 ≈ 65.3%
- Dream: 1 / 2.52 ≈ 39.7%

EV Adjustments (WNBA underdog win rate = 32%):
- Underdog (Dream): (39.7% + 32%) / 2 = 35.8%
- Favorite (Liberty): (65.3% + 68%) / 2 = 66.7%

EV Comparison:
- Liberty: 66.7% (adjusted) vs. 65.3% (implied) → +1.4% EV.
- Dream: 35.8% (adjusted) vs. 39.7% (implied) → -3.9% EV.

---

### The Verdict
Bet the New York Liberty (-4.5).

Why?
- The Liberty’s adjusted win probability (66.7%) comfortably exceeds their implied odds (65.3%), offering positive EV.
- Atlanta’s recent struggles (including Gray’s 6-point outing) and New York’s home-court advantage tilt the scale.
- Don’t sleep on the Dream’s rebounding, but their shooting woes (8th in FG%) will collide with the Liberty’s elite defense.

The Joke:
If the Dream want to keep dreaming, they’ll need to stop sleeping on Ionescu and Stewart. The Liberty are about to turn Atlanta’s “Dream” into a nightmare—unless Allisha Gray starts shooting like she’s in a NBA 2K highlight reel.

Final Prediction: New York 82, Atlanta 75.
Take the points, Dream fans. You’ve got a 35.8% chance to win… which is about the same as me believing Karl Smesko’s pregame press conferences. 🏀

More archived WNBA predictions

Original social copy