Prediction: Cincinnati Reds VS St. Louis Cardinals 2025-06-20

Cardinals vs. Reds: A Tale of Two Batting Averages and One Very Confused Moneyline
By The Sarcasm Scribe, MLB’s Most Trusted (and Sarcastic) Handicapper

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The Setup
The St. Louis Cardinals (-137) host the Cincinnati Reds (+215) in a NL Central clash that’s equal parts “show me” and “why not?” The Cards boast the fourth-best batting average (.256) in MLB, while the Reds rank seventh in runs scored (350). But here’s the kicker: the Reds have won 53.7% of their games as underdogs this season—well above baseball’s 41% underdog win rate. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are only 51.5% when favored. Translation? The market might be overvaluing the Cards and undervaluing the Reds.

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Key Players & Pitching Matchup
- Cardinals: Andre Pallante (4.83 ERA) toes the rubber for St. Louis. His ERA is worse than the Reds’ starting pitcher, Brady Singer (4.34 ERA). On offense, Brendan Donovan (.323 BA) and Nolan Arenado are the threats.
- Reds: Elly De La Cruz (16 HRs, 50 RBI) and Gavin Lux lead a high-octane offense. Singer’s 4.34 ERA isn’t elite, but it’s better than Pallante’s, and the Reds’ lineup could feast on the Cardinals’ shaky starter.

Injuries?
None reported. Both teams are at full strength, which is either a blessing or a curse depending on how chaotic this game gets.

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Odds Breakdown & Expected Value
- Cardinals (-137): Implied win probability ≈ 54.5%. Historical win rate as favorites: 51.5%.
- Reds (+215): Implied win probability ≈ 32.3%. Historical win rate as underdogs: 53.7%.

Calculating EV:
- Cardinals: (51.5% * $71.9) - (48.5% * $100) = -$11.0
- Reds: (53.7% * $215) - (46.3% * $100) = +$69.1

The Reds offer positive expected value and a 53.7% chance to win—22.7% higher than the average underdog. The Cardinals’ edge in batting average (.256 vs. .252) is negated by their pitcher’s ERA and the Reds’ explosive offense.

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The Verdict
Bet the Cincinnati Reds (+215).
Why? The Reds are a classic “outlier underdog” with a 53.7% win rate as dogs, backed by a potent offense and a better starter. The Cardinals’ .256 BA is meaningless if Pallante can’t contain Cincinnati’s bats. Plus, baseball history shows that underdogs with high-scoring DPs (De La Cruz, Lux) and a better starter (Singer) often shock favorites.

Bonus Play: Over 9 Runs (-110). With Pallante’s 4.83 ERA and the Reds’ 350-run season, this game could explode.

Final Thought: The moneyline is confused. Bet the Reds and let the Cards’ shaky pitching and the Reds’ “we don’t care about odds” attitude do the rest.

“The Reds aren’t just underdogs—they’re the kind of team that makes you question the entire algorithm of sports betting.” — The Sarcasm Scribe

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