Prediction: Dallas Wings VS Phoenix Mercury 2025-06-11

The WNBA Commissioner's Cup is heating up, and we've got a juicy matchup between the struggling Dallas Wings and the surging Phoenix Mercury. The Wings are riding a five-game losing streak, while the Mercury are sitting pretty with a 6-4 record.

First, let's talk about the Wings. They're getting a much-needed boost with the return of Paige Bueckers, who's been out with an injury. Before getting hurt, Bueckers was on fire, averaging 15.7 points, 6.7 assists, and 4.7 rebounds per game. The problem is, they'll be without Tyasha Harris for the rest of the season due to knee surgery.

On the other side, the Mercury are dealing with some injury concerns of their own. Natasha Mack is out with a back injury, and Megan McConnel is sidelined with a knee injury. However, they're expecting the return of star point guard Alyssa Thomas, who's been out for five games with a calf injury. Thomas's workload might be limited, but her presence will still be a significant boost to the Mercury.

The Mercury are favored by 6.5 points, and the total is set at 166.5. Given the Wings' struggles on defense and the Mercury's strong form, I'm inclined to side with the Mercury. However, with Bueckers back in the lineup, I think the Wings will put up a fight.

For a best bet, I recommend taking the over on Arike Ogunbowale's points total, which is set at 16.5. Ogunbowale has been averaging 16.3 points per game this season, and with Bueckers back in the lineup, I expect her to get more opportunities to score.

Another intriguing bet is the same-game parlay on Bueckers to have 5+ assists, 5+ rebounds, and 10+ points, which is paying +230 at bet365. Given her recent form, I think she's got a good chance of making that happen.

As for the game itself, I'm going to take the Phoenix Mercury to cover the spread (-6.5). They're the better team on paper, and with Thomas back in the lineup, I think they'll be able to contain the Wings' offense.

The predicted final score: Phoenix Mercury 85, Dallas Wings 78.

Best bets:

Over 16.5 points for Arike Ogunbowale
Paige Bueckers to have 5+ assists, 5+ rebounds, and 10+ points (+230)
* Phoenix Mercury -6.5

Don't forget to shop around for the best odds, and may the best team win (or at least cover the spread)!

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