Prediction: New York Liberty VS Phoenix Mercury 2025-06-27

Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: A Tale of Two Teams (and One Very Pneumothoraxed Rookie)

The Setup
The Phoenix Mercury (5-game win streak, 107-point explosion vs. Chicago) are set to clash with the defending champion New York Liberty (9-3, but 3-5 in last 8), who are reeling from injuries and inconsistency. This is less of a "championship preview" and more of a "who’s less broken?" contest.

Key Stats & Context
- Phoenix’s Bench Beast Mode: Sami Whitcomb (17 points vs. Chicago) and a healthy Alyssa Thomas (13.6 PPG, 9.8 APG in last 5) have been the engine. But rookie Lexi Held, who averages 8.7 PPG, is sidelined with a pneumothorax—a fancy term for “her lungs are currently on strike.”
- New York’s Absentee Problem: Jonquel Jones (ankle) is out indefinitely. The Liberty’s defense has been a sieve without her, and Sabrina Stewart (23 points in last game) is trying to carry a team that’s now 3-5 in her absence.
- The Spread: Phoenix is a -1.5 favorite (odds: ~1.85), while New York is +1.5 (odds: ~2.0). The total is 167.5 points.

Injury Report: The Real MVP
- Lexi Held’s Pneumothorax: A brutal blow for Phoenix. Her 8.7 PPG and 20.7 MPG off the bench? Gone. The Mercury’s bench depth is now a question mark.
- Jonquel Jones’ Ankle: New York’s anchor is out, and while Stewart is stellar (23 PPG), she can’t guard everyone. The Liberty’s defense has allowed 102+ points in 4 of their last 5 games.

Odds Breakdown & Expected Value
- Implied Probabilities:
- Phoenix: 1 / 1.85 ≈ 54.05%
- New York: 1 / 2.0 ≈ 50.00%
- Underdog Win Rate (WNBA): Not explicitly listed, but using NBA’s 32% as a proxy.
- Split the Difference:
- Phoenix’s implied 54.05% vs. historical underdog rates suggest the line is slightly in Phoenix’s favor.
- New York’s 50% implied probability vs. a 32% underdog rate hints at value for the Liberty, but their injuries make this a dice roll.

The Verdict: Phoenix in a Pickle
While the Liberty’s injuries are glaring, Phoenix’s recent dominance (107-point game!) and Alyssa Thomas’ all-around brilliance tilt the scales. However, the spread (-1.5) is a tight line for a team missing a key bench player.

Best Bet: Phoenix Mercury -1.5 (-110)
- Why? The Mercury’s offensive firepower (107 PPG in last game) and New York’s porous defense (-1.5 is a low bar) make Phoenix the safer play. Even with Held out, Phoenix’s bench has enough to cover.
- EV Edge: Phoenix’s implied 54% win probability vs. the 50% underdog rate gives them a slight edge. The spread line is tight, but Phoenix’s recent form (5-game streak) and New York’s injury woes make this a +EV play.

Honorable Mention: Over 167.5 (-110)
- Phoenix scored 107 in their last game. New York’s defense is leaky. This game could be a shootout.

Final Score Prediction: Phoenix Mercury 92, New York Liberty 87.
Final Verdict: Bet Phoenix -1.5. It’s not a landslide, but in a league where 1 point can decide a title, this is the pick.

“Injuries are part of the game, but a collapsed lung? That’s just cruel.” — Sami Whitcomb, probably.

More archived WNBA predictions

Original social copy