Prediction: New York Yankees VS New York Mets 2025-07-06

The Subway Series Showdown: Yankees vs. Mets – A Tale of Two New Yorks
By The Handicapper Who Still Can’t Believe the Yankees Pay Max Fried to Pitch

The Setup
The New York Yankees, fresh off a 12-run drubbing at the hands of the Mets on Saturday, are clinging to pride as they face their crosstown rivals in a series finale. Max Fried, their "ace" (as if he’s not just here to collect a paycheck), takes the mound for the Yankees, while the Mets counter with Chris Devenski, a pitcher whose name sounds like it belongs on a 1980s sitcom. The Mets are +200 underdogs (FanDuel), and the total runs line sits at 7.5. Let’s break this down with the precision of a broken calculator.

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### Key Stats & Trends
1. Max Fried’s Resume:
- 10-2 record, 2.13 ERA on the season.
- Allowed 9 home runs this year.
- But wait! The Mets have hit 4 of those 9 homers against him. Pete Alonso is basically a human GPS for Fried’s fastball.

2. Yankees’ Bullpen:
- Skyrocketing ERA of 4.05.
- If Fried exits early (and he will exit early, because pitchers are fragile), the Mets’ lineup (which includes Alonso, who’s 4-for-4 against Fried this series) will feast.

3. Mets’ Bullpen:
- One of the better units in baseball.
- Chris Devenski, the starter, has a 3.80 ERA and a knack for keeping games close.

4. Underdog Magic:
- Baseball underdogs win 41% of the time. The Mets are +200, implying a 33.3% chance to win. That’s a 7.7% edge for the underdog.

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### Odds Breakdown
- Yankees (-380): Implied probability = 79.17% (380/(380+100)).
- Mets (+200): Implied probability = 33.33% (100/(200+100)).
- Underdog Win Rate: 41%.
- EV for Mets: (41% - 33.33%) = 7.7% edge.

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### The Play
Best Bet: New York Mets (+200)
Why? Because the Yankees’ "ace" is a home run machine for the Mets, their bullpen is a sieve, and the underdog win rate in baseball is higher than the odds suggest. The Mets’ +200 line is a steal given their 41% historical chance to pull off the upset.

Secondary Play: Over 7.5 Runs (-110)
- Fried’s 2.13 ERA is nice, but he’s allowed 9 HRs. The Mets’ offense (12 runs in Game 2) and the Yankees’ shaky bullpen (4.05 ERA) make this a high-scoring affair. The Over has a 53.19% implied probability (1/(7.5+1)100), but the context suggests it’ll hit more often.

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### Prop Bets to Consider
- Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+162): Fried has allowed 9 HRs this year, and Judge’s .315 ISO against lefties makes him a prime candidate.
- Trent Grisham to Hit a Home Run (+390): The Mets’ speedster has a 12.3% HR rate against lefties.

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### Final Verdict
The Yankees are overvalued (-380) and the Mets are undervalued (+200). With Fried’s home run issues and the Yankees’ bullpen in disarray, the Mets have a 41% chance to win this game—far higher than the 33.3% implied by the odds. Take the Mets and the Over. And if you’re feeling spicy, throw in Judge to go deep.

Expected Value Summary:
- Mets: 7.7% edge over the book’s implied probability.
- Over 7.5: ~5% edge based on context vs. 53.19% implied.

Responsible Gaming Reminder*: Don’t bet your firstborn. Unless you’re a Yankees fan—then go ahead.

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