Prediction: New York Yankees VS Toronto Blue Jays 2025-07-03

The Yankees vs. Blue Jays Showdown: A Tale of Two Pitchers (and a Typo)

The New York Yankees, fresh off a two-game skid to the Toronto Blue Jays, are clinging to a one-game lead in the AL East like a toddler clings to a half-eaten ice cream cone. Toronto, meanwhile, is riding a seven-game winning streak, led by the enigmatic Jose Berrios (though he’s not even starting this game, thanks to a scheduling snafu that left fans scratching their heads). The Yankees are favored, but their starting pitcher—Clarke Schmidt or Will Warren? The data says Clarke Schmidt, but the narrative says Will Warren has a 4.37 ERA. We’re not sure which is true, but we’re 99% certain someone at the Yankees’ front office is currently crying into a spreadsheet.

Key Stats & Context
- Yankees: 3.58 team ERA (7th in MLB), Aaron Judge (.358 BA, 30 HRs) leading the charge.
- Blue Jays: 4.21 team ERA (23rd), 86 HRs (18th), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.278 BA, 12 HRs) as their offensive spark.
- Starting Pitchers: Clarke Schmidt (Yankees) vs. Chris Bassitt (Blue Jays). If Will Warren is actually pitching, we’re all in trouble.

Odds Breakdown
- Moneyline: Yankees -200 (55.25% implied), Blue Jays +200 (48.78% implied).
- Spread: Yankees -1.5 (-230), Blue Jays +1.5 (+165).
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 runs.

The Math, Because We’re All Accountants Here
Using the underdog win rate of 41% for MLB and splitting the difference between implied probabilities and historical trends:
- Yankees Adjusted Win Probability: 55.25% + 1.875% = 57.125%
- Blue Jays Adjusted Win Probability: 48.78% - 3.89% = 44.89%

Expected Value (EV) Calculation:
- Yankees: (57.125% * +50%) - (42.875% * -100%) = **-14.3

More archived MLB predictions

Original social copy