Prediction: Phoenix Mercury VS Chicago Sky 2025-06-21

Phoenix Mercury vs. Chicago Sky: A Tale of Two Cities (and Injuries)
June 21, 2025 | Wintrust Arena | 5:00 PM ET

The Setup:
The Phoenix Mercury (10-4) are here to flex their third-place swagger, while the Chicago Sky (3-8) are… well, still figuring out how to not be the WNBA’s version of a rental car. Last time these teams met, Phoenix won 94-89 behind Satou Sabally’s 20-point, 8-rebound clinic. But now? It’s a different game.

Key Stats & Trends:
- Phoenix’s Edge: Satou Sabally is averaging 19.9 PPG and 8.5 RPG but is shooting a pedestrian 38.3% from the field. If she can’t hit threes (25.3%), the Mercury’s offense flatlines.
- Chicago’s Hope: Angel Reese (11.0 PPG, 11.7 RPG) and Ariel Atkins (12.6 PPG) are their best bet to keep up. But without Moriah Jefferson and Courtney Vandersloot (injuries), their defense is a leaky sieve.
- Injury Impact: Phoenix is missing Kahleah Copper (their second-leading scorer) and Megan McConnell. Chicago loses Jefferson (their glue guy) and Vandersloot (their floor general). Both teams are playing with one hand tied behind their backs.

Odds Breakdown:
- Moneyline: Phoenix (-1.27 to -1.28) is a 78.7% implied favorite. Chicago (+3.78 to +3.9) is a 26% underdog.
- Spread: Phoenix -8.5 (-1.91 to -1.98) vs. Chicago +8.5 (+1.85 to +1.93).
- Total: 158.5 (even money).

The Math:
- Underdog Win Rate Adjustment: WNBA underdogs win 41% of the time. Chicago’s implied win rate (26%) is way below that. Splitting the difference: Chicago’s adjusted win probability = (41% + 26%) / 2 = 33.5%.
- Expected Value (EV) for Chicago:
- If Chicago wins at +3.85, profit = $2.85 per $1 bet.
- EV = (33.5% * 2.85) - (66.5% * 1) = +0.29.
- EV for Phoenix:
- Implied 78.7% vs. adjusted 66.5% → EV = (66.5% * 0.27) - (33.5% * 1) = -0.16.

The Verdict:
Phoenix is the obvious favorite, but their injuries (Copper, McConnell) and Sabally’s inefficiency make them overrated. Chicago’s 41% underdog win rate suggests they’re undervalued at +3.85. Even with a 33.5% chance to win, their EV is +29 cents per dollar, making them the smart play.

Best Bet: Chicago Sky +3.85
Why? The market is sleeping on the Sky’s ability to exploit Phoenix’s injury woes. Angel Reese’s dominance on the boards and Ariel Atkins’ scoring could force a cover. Plus, who doesn’t want to bet against the WNBA’s third-place team?

Spread & Total Take:
- Chicago +8.5 (+1.91): If you’re feeling spicy, the Sky could cover with a strong second-half push.
- Over 158.5 (-1.91): Phoenix’s offense (85.3 PPG) and Chicago’s porous defense (83.4 PPG allowed) suggest a high-scoring affair.

Final Thought:
This isn’t a “trust the underdog” pick—it’s a “trust the math” pick. Phoenix’s injuries and Sabally’s cold streak create a gap in their dominance. Bet Chicago and let the upset gods do their thing.

“The Sky may be falling, but the odds are rising.” 🌌

More archived WNBA predictions

Original social copy