Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates VS Chicago Cubs 2025-06-14

Folks, we've got a real barnburner of a matchup for you today - the Pittsburgh Pirates (28-42) are heading to Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (42-27) on Saturday, June 14, 2025. The Cubs are looking like the clear favorite, with a -230 moneyline price tag, while the Pirates are sitting pretty at +190.

Let's dive into the numbers. The Cubs have been on fire as moneyline favorites, winning a whopping 71.7% of their games when listed as such. Meanwhile, the Pirates have struggled as underdogs, posting a 39.6% win rate. That's a significant disparity, folks.

The Cubs' offense has been a force to be reckoned with, ranking second in baseball with 5.5 runs per game. They're also crushing it at the plate, ranking fourth in total home runs (96) and slugging percentage (.442). Key players to watch include Kyle Tucker (.273, 13 HR, 43 RBI), Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Seiya Suzuki (.266, 17 HR, 57 RBI).

The Pirates, on the other hand, have struggled to score runs, ranking 29th with a paltry 3.2 runs per game. Their pitching staff has been decent, with a team ERA of 3.79 and a combined WHIP of 1.198. Oneil Cruz (13 HR), Bryan Reynolds (39 RBI), and Andrew McCutchen will need to bring their A-game to Wrigley Field.

In terms of injuries, I couldn't find any significant updates, so we'll assume both teams are at full strength.

Now, let's talk best bets. Given the Cubs' dominance as favorites and their potent offense, I'm going to recommend a Cubs moneyline bet (-230). If you're looking for a more exciting play, consider taking the Over 7.5 runs, which has a consensus price of around -105.

Here's a data-driven breakdown:

Cubs moneyline: 71.7% win rate as favorites
Pirates win rate as underdogs: 39.6%
Cubs' offense: 5.5 runs per game (2nd in MLB)
Pirates' offense: 3.2 runs per game (29th in MLB)
* Cubs' slugging percentage: .442 (4th in MLB)

Based on these trends, I'm confident in the Cubs' ability to take down the Pirates. My prediction is: Chicago Cubs 5, Pittsburgh Pirates 2.

Best bet: Chicago Cubs moneyline (-230) and Over 7.5 runs (-105).

More archived MLB predictions

Original social copy