Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates VS Kansas City Royals 2025-07-09

The Pirates vs. Royals Showdown: A Tale of Two Struggles
The Kansas City Royals (44-48) and Pittsburgh Pirates (38-54) meet in the rubber match of their series, with both teams serving as baseball’s version of a broken umbrella in a hurricane. The Royals, led by the enigmatic Kris Bubic (7-6, 2.36 ERA), are favored to sweep the Pirates, who send Bailey Falter (6-4, 3.69 ERA) to the mound. But let’s not let the odds blind us—this is a game where math, not muscle, might win the day.

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### Key Stats & Context
- Royals:
- 16-17 as favorites this season.
- 67 home runs (2nd-fewest in MLB).
- Bobby Witt Jr. on an 11-game hitting streak.
- Pirates:
- 25-64 as underdogs (39% win rate).
- 62 home runs (last in MLB).
- Andrew McCutchen, 35, still defying Father Time (and the odds).

Pitching Matchup:
- Kris Bubic (Royals): 2.36 ERA, but a 5.12 ERA in his last three starts.
- Bailey Falter (Pirates): 3.69 ERA, but a 4.82 ERA on the road.

Odds Breakdown:
- Moneyline:
- Royals: -150 (implied probability: 60%)
- Pirates: +260 (implied probability: 28%)
- Spread: Royals -1.5 (-150), Pirates +1.5 (+250)
- Total: Over 8.5 (-110), Under 8.5 (-110)

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### The Math of Madness
Underdog Win Rate in MLB: 41%
Favorite Win Rate: 59%

Expected Value (EV) Calculations:
1. Royals (Favorite):
- Implied probability from odds: 60%
- Historical favorite win rate: 59%
- Split the difference: (60% + 59%) / 2 = 59.5%
- EV: -0.5% (slight negative edge).

2. Pirates (Underdog):
- Implied probability from odds: 28%
- Historical underdog win rate: 41%
- Split the difference: (28% + 41%) / 2 = 34.5%
- EV: +6.5% (positive edge).

Total (Under 8.5):
- Both teams rank in the bottom 5 in MLB for slugging percentage (.371 and .368).
- Bubic and Falter are both ground-ball pitchers (58% and 55% GB%), favoring the under.
- Implied probability from odds: 50% (even money).
- Historical under rate for low-offense matchups: ~55%.
- EV: +5% (slight positive edge).

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### The Verdict
While the Royals’ “hot bats” and Bubic’s ERA might seduce you, the math tells a different story. The Pirates, despite their 38-54 record, offer a +6.5% edge as underdogs, and the under 8.5 runs has a +5% edge.

Best Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates (+260) ML
Secondary Play: Under 8.5 Runs (-110)

Why?
- The Pirates’ 39% underdog win rate (25/64) is just 2% shy of the MLB average (41%), giving them a slight edge.
- Bubic’s recent struggles (5.12 ERA in last 3 starts) and the Royals’ anemic offense (67 HRs) make them overrated favorites.
- The under is a no-brainer in a matchup of two teams that hit like they’re playing with wooden bats.

Final Thought:
The Royals might sweep this series, but the Pirates are the smarter bet. After all, as the old saying goes, “The best thing about a Pirates win is that it’s not a loss.”

Go with the Pirates (+260) and the Under 8.5 Runs (-110).

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