Prediction: Raoni Barcelos VS Cody Garbrandt 2025-06-14

The sweet science of MMA matchmaking has given us a real treat: Raoni Barcelos, the grappling wizard, versus Cody Garbrandt, the former bantamweight king with a penchant for... well, let's just say, inconsistent performances.

As we dive into the numbers, it's no surprise Barcelos is the favorite, with odds ranging from -240 to -260 (1.38 to 1.41) across various bookmakers. Garbrandt, on the other hand, is the underdog, with odds between +285 and +315 (2.85 to 3.25). The implied probability of Barcelos winning is around 70-72%, while Garbrandt's chances are roughly 28-35%.

Now, let's examine the historical trends. In MMA, underdog win rates hover around 35%. However, Garbrandt's recent form and Barcelos's confidence might sway the outcome. Raoni Barcelos is looking to capitalize on his momentum after handing Payton Talbott his first professional loss. He's eager to employ his grappling skills, which could neutralize Garbrandt's striking prowess.

Cody Garbrandt, a former bantamweight champion, has struggled to regain his footing, with only four wins in his last ten fights. A year-long hiatus doesn't exactly scream "peak performance." However, it's hard to count out a former champion, especially one with Garbrandt's skillset.

The significant injury report here is... actually, there's no significant injury report. Both fighters seem to be healthy and ready to go.

The game plan for Barcelos is clear: take Garbrandt down and submit him. If he can execute this strategy, we might see a relatively short night for the Brazilian.

The over/under for this fight is set at 2.5, with most bookmakers favoring the under. Given Barcelos's grappling-based approach, I wouldn't be surprised if this one doesn't go the full three rounds.

Best bet: Raoni Barcelos by submission (round 1 or 2). If you're not feeling adventurous, taking Barcelos on the moneyline (-240 to -260) is a solid choice. If you want a more substantial payout, consider the under 2.5 rounds at around 1.8.

Prediction: Raoni Barcelos via submission (1.5 to 2.5 rounds). The Brazilian's grappling skills and Garbrandt's recent struggles make this a likely outcome.

Will Garbrandt pull off the upset? Stranger things have happened, but the data suggests otherwise.

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