Prediction: Roberto Carballes Baena VS Alex de Minaur 2025-07-01

Wimbledon Day 2: Alex de Minaur vs. Roberto Carballes Baena – A Tale of Overconfidence and Underdog Hope

The Setup:
No. 11 seed Alex de Minaur, the 2023 US Open semifinalist and a grass-court menace, faces No. 74 Roberto Carballes Baena, a gritty Spaniard currently riding a three-match losing streak. The odds? De Minaur is a ridiculous -10000 favorite (decimal: 1.01), while Baena is a +1600 underdog. Let’s break this down with the precision of a Wimbledon line judge and the humor of a player who’s just lost a tiebreaker in the final.

---

### The Numbers Game
Implied Probabilities (from Odds):
- De Minaur: ~99.01% (1 / 1.01)
- Baena: ~6.25% (1 / 16.0)
- Total: 105.26% (Vig: ~5.26%)

Split the Difference (Underdog Win Rate = 30%):
- Adjusted Baena Win Probability: (6.25% + 30%) / 2 = 18.13%
- Adjusted De Minaur Win Probability: 81.87%

Expected Value (EV) Calculation:
- De Minaur: (81.87% * $1) - (18.13% * $100) = -17.13% EV
- Baena: (18.13% * $16) - (81.87% * $1) = +189.28% EV

---

### The Analysts’ Take (and Why They’re Probably Wrong)
The analysts are all over de Minaur like a hawk on a tennis ball. They cite his 4-0 head-to-head, his 2024 grass-court form (12-3 record), and Baena’s “concerning fitness.” But here’s the rub: Baena’s fitness might be a red herring. The Spaniard’s recent losses came against top-10 players (Zverev, Tsitsipas), not because of injury. Plus, his 2024 grass record (4-3) isn’t terrible, and he’s a master of upsets (his 2023 Wimbledon run to the fourth round was a thing of beauty).

De Minaur’s dominance? Sure, but his 2024 grass win percentage (85.7%) is inflated by easy draws. He’s also prone to “Wimbledon jitters” in tight matches (see: 2023 third-round exit). Meanwhile, Baena’s +1600 odds are laughably short for a player with 30% historical underdog win rates in tennis.

---

### The Verdict: Bet on the Underdog, But Do It Smartly
Best Bet: Roberto Carballes Baena (+1600)
- Why? The EV is astronomical (+189.28%), and Baena’s 18.13% adjusted win probability is way higher than the implied 6.25%.
- How to Win: Bet small, bet bold. If Baena wins, you’ll feel like a genius. If he loses, you’ll feel like a genius who’s also rich.

Second-Best Bet (for the Risk-Averse): De Minaur -10.5 Spread
- The spread is -10.5, but Baena’s energy and unseeded status could make this a 5-set thriller. If you’re not a fan of +1600 long shots, take de Minaur to cover (-10.5) at 2.0 odds.

---

### Final Thoughts
Wimbledon is where miracles are born. De Minaur is the favorite, but Baena’s +1600 line is a gift for sharp bettors. As one analyst (probably Ilemona) said, “Carballes Baena’s got nothing to lose but his three-match streak.” And honestly, that’s a dangerous mindset for a player who’s already defied the odds once before.

Prediction: De Minaur in 4 sets (6-3, 6-4, 6-3), but don’t be surprised if Baena’s “energy” turns this into a 5-set thriller.

Bet Responsibly. And if Baena wins, send this article to your friends who still think favorites always win.

More archived Tennis predictions

Original social copy