Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals VS Chicago White Sox 2025-06-17

Cardinals vs. White Sox: A Tale of Two Teams, One Moneyline Mess
St. Louis Cardinals (-164) vs. Chicago White Sox (+230) | June 17, 2025 | Guaranteed Rate Field

---

The Setup
The Cardinals, fresh off a 37-35 season, roll into Chicago as -164 favorites. The White Sox, 23-49 and on a five-game losing streak, are +230 underdogs. But let’s not let the numbers fool us—this is a game where the underdog has a slight chance to pull off a stunner.

Key Stats to Know
- Cardinals’ Pitching: 4.00 ERA (19th in MLB), 7.3 K/9 (2nd-worst). They’re like a leaky faucet with a baseball glove.
- White Sox’ Hitting: 248 runs scored (27th), 55 HRs (28th). They’re the MLB’s version of a team that forgot how to swing.
- Shane Smith (White Sox): 2.37 ERA. The lone bright spot in a sea of mediocrity.
- Matthew Liberatore (Cardinals): 4.17 ERA. A pitcher who’s more “meh” than “ace.”

The Underdog Case
The White Sox have won 23 of 72 games as underdogs this season (32%), slightly below the MLB average of 41%. But here’s the twist: Shane Smith is pitching. The 2.37 ERA guy. The Cardinals’ offense? Ninth in runs per game (4.6), but their pitching staff? 19th in ERA. If Smith can contain the Cardinals’ bats (and he should), and the White Sox avoid the HR bugaboo, this could be a “Wait, did we just win?” moment.

The Favorite’s Flaws
The Cardinals are 15-16 as favorites this year. That’s barely better than a coin flip. Their 4.00 ERA is pedestrian, and their 7.3 K/9 is a red flag. They’re like a sports car with a flat tire—still fast, but not if you’re in a hurry.

Odds Breakdown
- Cardinals (-164): Implied probability of 62%.
- White Sox (+230): Implied probability of 31%.

Splitting the Difference
The underdog win rate in MLB is 41%, but the White Sox have only won 32% of their underdog games. That’s a 9% gap. If we adjust the White Sox’ implied probability to match the MLB average (41%), their true odds would be 41%, vs. the bookies’ 31%. That’s a 10% edge for the underdog.

Expected Value (EV) Calculation
- White Sox EV:
(0.41 * 2.3) - (0.59 * 1) = 0.943 - 0.59 = +0.353 (Positive EV).
- Cardinals EV:
(0.62 * 1.65) - (0.38 * 1) = 1.023 - 0.38 = +0.643 (Also positive, but less so).

The Verdict
While both teams technically have positive EV, the White Sox offer the better value. The Cardinals’ 62% implied probability is inflated by their .500+ record, but their 48% performance as favorites suggests they’re overrated. Shane Smith’s 2.37 ERA vs. Matthew Liberatore’s 4.17 ERA tilts the matchup in Chicago’s favor.

Final Prediction
Bet the Chicago White Sox (+230)
- Why? Smith vs. Liberatore, the Cardinals’ shaky pitching, and the White Sox’ 41% true underdog rate make this a sneaky play.
- Score Prediction: White Sox 3, Cardinals 2.

Bonus Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (-110). Both offenses are duds; this game will be a pitcher’s duel.

Remember, folks: in baseball, even the worst team can win. Especially when the best team’s pitching looks like it’s been on vacation. 🎩⚾

More archived MLB predictions

Original social copy