Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals VS Milwaukee Brewers 2025-06-13

The St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers are set to face off on Friday at 8:10 p.m. ET, with the Brewers looking to build on their impressive performance from their previous game. The Brewers are favored to win at -158, while the Cardinals are underdogs at +133.

First, let's talk about the elephant in the room - or rather, the elephant on the mound. Jacob Misiorowski's MLB debut was nothing short of electrifying, with five no-hit innings, five strikeouts, and a 102.2 mph fastball. Unfortunately, his night was cut short due to leg cramps, but the Brewers' bullpen, led by Aaron Ashby's three-inning save, did the rest.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, are still trying to figure out what hit them (pun intended). Sonny Gray's outing was a disaster, allowing two runs to Jackson Chourio and two more to Sal Frelick.

Now, onto the task at hand. The Brewers have a strong record as favorites, winning 67.6% of their games, while the Cardinals have won 55.3% of their games as underdogs. The Brewers' team ERA stands at 3.87, ranking 15th in MLB, while the Cardinals have a 3.95 ERA, ranking 17th.

Key players to watch include Jackson Chourio, Christian Yelich, and Sal Frelick for the Brewers, and Brendan Donovan, Nolan Arenado, and Willson Contreras for the Cardinals.

The odds are clear: the Brewers are the team to beat. With a -158 favorite, the Brewers' win probability sits around 61.2% (based on the implied probability of the odds).

As for the best bet, I'd recommend taking the Brewers to win at -158. Not only do they have a strong record as favorites, but their recent performance, coupled with Misiorowski's (hopefully) cramp-free outing, gives them an edge.

The total for the game is set at 7.5, with the Over and Under having similar odds across bookmakers (around 1.87 for Over and 1.95 for Under). Given the Brewers' and Cardinals' ERAs, a low-scoring game is possible, but I'd lean towards the Under, considering their recent performance.

In conclusion, my data-driven best bet is:

Milwaukee Brewers to win at -158
Under 7.5 at 1.95

The Cardinals might put up a fight, but the Brewers' momentum and pitching edge give them the upper hand.

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