Prop Bets: Alex de Minaur VS Daniel Altmaier 2025-08-30

Prediction: Alex de Minaur vs. Daniel Altmaier – US Open Third Round
August 30, 2025 | 8:00 PM ET | Court 17

The Underdog’s Tale:
Daniel Altmaier, the German underdog who survived a five-set thriller against Stefanos Tsitsipas (7-6, 1-6, 4-6, 6-3, 7-5), is now facing the 8th-seeded Alex de Minaur. If Altmaier’s legs aren’t already jello, the 9-hour marathon in his first two matches probably fixed that. His implied probability of winning? A laughably low 8.3% (per DraftKings’ 14.0 odds). De Minaur, meanwhile, is priced at 95.2% (1.04 odds on FanDuel). The math says Altmaier’s victory would be about as likely as a free US Open broadcast.

The Props to Bet On:
- Spread: De Minaur is -8.5 (MyBookie.ag offers 2.1 for the underdog, 1.65 for the favorite). If Altmaier covers, the ATP should retire the word “favorite.”
- Total Games: 30.5 (over at 1.87, under at 1.87). With Altmaier’s endurance in question, the under might be safer—unless de Minaur decides to play 2025’s version of The Wall.

The Verdict:
Altmaier’s “Wegen dieser Momente spiele ich Tennis” (“Because of moments like this, I play tennis”) quote is either poetic or a cry for help. Either way, de Minaur’s likely to end it in three sets, though Altmaier might force a fourth if he’s feeling particularly dramatic. Final Score Prediction: De Minaur 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 (or 6-4, 7-6 if Altmaier’s legs decide to time-travel back to 2023).

Bottom Line: Bet de Minaur unless you enjoy watching history repeat itself… and by history, we mean Altmaier’s odds being a statistical anomaly.

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