Prop Bets: Detroit Tigers VS Pittsburgh Pirates 2025-07-23

Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions: A Tale of Two Offenses (and Why You Should Bet on Boredom)

The Detroit Tigers (-1.5, -180) are favored to embarrass the Pittsburgh Pirates (1.5, +160) in what promises to be a snoozefest of a game. Casey Mize (3.15 ERA) takes the mound for Detroit, while Mitch Keller (6-14 record, because of course) tries to avoid becoming the first Pirate since 1901 to lose 20 games this season. The implied probability of the Tigers winning straight up? A whopping 60% based on the moneyline odds. But let’s be real—this game’s only highlight will be the UNDER 8.5 runs (-115 for Under) cashing in, given the Pirates have scored eight or fewer runs in 14 of Keller’s 16 starts.

Player Props to Ponder (and Probably Avoid):
- Spencer Torkelson HR Over 0.5 (-240): The Tigers’ slugger has 22 HRs this year, but this line’s implied probability (71.4%) feels optimistic. Bet it if you’ve forgotten how many times Torkelson has struck out this season.
- Gleyber Torres Hits Over 1.5 (-105): The “Over” is a safe bet here—Torres has 18 HRs and a .312 average, but the Pirates’ defense might make this a 0-for-3 night. Implied probability? 50%. Still, it’s the most exciting prop on the board.
- Bailey Falter Strikeouts Under 3.5 (-140): The Pirates’ starter has K’d just 49 batters in 56 IP this year. The Under 3.5 Ks is a 57.1% favorite—because nothing says “exciting pitchers’ duel” like two guys with combined ERA of 8.00.

Final Verdict: Lay the -1.5 with Detroit and take the UNDER 8.5 (-115). The Pirates’ offense is like a deflated whoopee cushion—present, but not useful. And if Torkelson homers? Consider it a miracle.

“This game isn’t boring—it’s in a coma.” —Your future self, regretting this bet.

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