Prop Bets: Phoenix Mercury VS New York Liberty 2025-07-25

WNBA Showdown: Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty
July 25, 2025 — 7:30 PM ET

The Verdict? The New York Liberty are about to hand the Phoenix Mercury their fifth straight loss, and it’s not even close. With the Liberty at -294 on the moneyline (implied 74.6% win probability), the books are so confident in Jonquel Jones’ return from injury that they’ve basically already handed New York the trophy. Jones, the 2024 Finals MVP, is a 12.5-point, 8.5-rebound machine according to the props, and the Liberty are 9-1 in her games. Phoenix, meanwhile, is 0-2 on this five-game road trip, which feels like a metaphor for their season.

Why It’s a Slam Dunk:
- The Liberty are 9-1 at home this year with a +12.5 point differential. Home-court advantage? More like home-court humiliation.
- The Over has hit 3 of 4 meetings this season, and with the total set at 171.5, expect another offensive fireworks show. Breanna Stewart (19.6 PPG) and Satou Sabally (18.8 PPG) will trade haymakers while the crowd boos Mercury’s “Where’s My Ankle?” tour.

Player Props to Watch:
- Sabrina Ionescu (-110 on 17.5 points): She’s the WNBA’s Steph Curry in a skirt, and the books think she’ll drop 18+ points again. Take the Over — but maybe bet on her not air-balling the ball into the third row this time.
- Jonquel Jones (-130 on 12.5 points): The Under is a trap. She’s coming for 15+ points and 10+ boards like it’s her job. Spoiler: It is.
- Three-Pointers: The author’s prediction? Ionescu hits three 3s (take the Over at -144) but with “better efficiency.” Translation: Fewer airballs.

The Spread? Liberty -6 (-110) is a breeze. Phoenix’s offense looks like a deflated balloon on a road trip.

Final Score Prediction: New York Liberty 89, Phoenix Mercury 80.

Postgame Headline: "Jones Dunks on Mercury’s Losing Streak (and Everyone’s Bets)."

Bet responsibly, or just bet on the Liberty — they’re doing it for you. 🏀🔥

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